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Clinicopathologic characteristics associated with long-term survival in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: an NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group ancillary data study

Published:November 28, 2017DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ygyno.2017.11.018

      Highlights

      • Of 3010 evaluable patients in GOG 182, 6.5% achieved long term survival (LTS) with survival >10 years.
      • Patients requiring lower complexity surgery and those with smaller postoperative residual were more likely to achieve LTS.
      • Lower CA-125, absence of ascites, stage III disease, and microscopic residual were independent predictors of LTS.
      • Histology, preoperative disease extent, and performance status were also associated with LTS.
      • A predictive model using extensive clinicopathologic data achieved an AUC of 0.729.

      Abstract

      Objective

      To identify clinicopathologic factors associated with 10-year overall survival in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) and primary peritoneal cancer (PPC), and to develop a predictive model identifying long-term survivors.

      Methods

      Demographic, surgical, and clinicopathologic data were abstracted from GOG 182 records. The association between clinical variables and long-term survival (LTS) (>10 years) was assessed using multivariable regression analysis. Bootstrap methods were used to develop predictive models from known prognostic clinical factors and predictive accuracy was quantified using optimism-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

      Results

      The analysis dataset included 3010 evaluable patients, of whom 195 survived greater than ten years. These patients were more likely to have better performance status, endometrioid histology, stage III (rather than stage IV) disease, absence of ascites, less extensive preoperative disease distribution, microscopic disease residual following cyoreduction (R0), and decreased complexity of surgery (p < 0.01). Multivariable regression analysis revealed that lower CA-125 levels, absence of ascites, stage, and R0 were significant independent predictors of LTS. A predictive model created using these variables had an AUC = 0.729, which outperformed any of the individual predictors.

      Conclusions

      The absence of ascites, a low CA-125, stage, and R0 at the time of cytoreduction are factors associated with LTS when controlling for other confounders. An extensively annotated clinicopathologic prediction model for LTS fell short of clinical utility suggesting that prognostic molecular profiles are needed to better predict which patients are likely to be long-term survivors.

      Keywords

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